Individual research recommendation details

Recommendation ID

NG50/4

Question

Assessing the risk of cirrhosis:- Development of a risk tool to identify people at risk of cirrhosis.

Any explanatory notes
(if applicable)

Why this is important:- For much of the time, until presentation with jaundice or decompensation, liver disease may remain asymptomatic and silent. The earlier liver disease and even cirrhosis is diagnosed, the better the opportunity to treat, limiting disease progression and, in many cases, offering a cure. The prevention of progression to end-stage liver disease, avoiding complications, and reducing the need for investigation, hospitalisation and intervention would have the potential for very large savings for the NHS. The earlier the diagnosis, the greater the potential patient and financial benefit. This is why GPs need a guide or 'toolkit' to identify people who are at high risk of having, or developing, advanced liver fibrosis or cirrhosis.
One approach would be to identify a retrospective cohort of people with cirrhosis, and to look at their cirrhosis risk factors. The proposed study should use a multivariate analysis to find the risk factors associated with the outcome of cirrhosis. By weighting the risk factors according to their association with the outcome, a risk tool should be developed to predict a person's risk of developing cirrhosis.

Source guidance details

Comes from guidance

Cirrhosis in over 16s: assessment and management

Number

NG50

Date issued

July 2016

Other details